The Airports Commission was set up the UK Government in September 2012 to examine the need for additional UK airport capacity and recommend how this can be met in the short, medium and long term.
In December 2013 it published an interim report stating that a detailed analysis of the Mayor’s proposals to build a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary will be carried out during the first half of 2014.
The report described the estuary proposals as offering a ‘scale of benefits potentially greater than for any of the other options that the Commission has considered’.
In addition to announcing a full study of the Mayor’s Thames Estuary option, the Commission has shortlisted two separate proposals to build a third runway at Heathrow and another for a second runway at Gatwick.
The Mayor is strongly against expanding existing airports. He said: ‘The creation of a monstrous Heathrow on a constrained site won’t solve our capacity crisis and would inflict untold misery on hundreds of thousands more Londoners through the din of many more jet engines in parts of the Capital and home counties that have not so far experienced it.
‘A new hub in the inner estuary can be built for the same cost as a four runway Heathrow, and would bring new jobs, homes, and long term competitiveness.’
London - and the country at large - depend on aviation. The connectivity it provides is vital for the success of our businesses and enriches both our economy and society.
Demand for flights, and the range of destinations to which people want to fly, is set to grow considerably in the coming years.
Only an efficient effective hub airport serving London will be able to consolidate the critical mass of demand which will enable airlines to offer the range of routes and frequencies our economy needs.
I find the evidence compelling. Even before I became Mayor of London, it was clear to me that expanding Heathrow was not the solution to the Capital's pressing need for increased hub capacity.
A constrained site too close to thousands of homes, which already affects 28% of those in Europe affected by aircraft noise, was never going to provide us with the full-service, round-the clock, multiple-runway hub airport that so many of our competitors now boast.
Every moment we delay, our rivals are improving their connectivity. They are doing so at our expense.
We are facing a huge challenge and need to come up with the right response.
The Government has established the Airports Commission, led by Sir Howard Davies, to try and do this.
I remain deeply concerned that the Commission schedule is unnecessarily unambitious, and that the time for action is now, not 2015.
My focus is to provide both solid evidence of how we are losing out to our competitors and the steps we must take to prevent this.
We must not become a mere local station on a branch line connected to one of the major airports on the other side of the Channel.
We cannot allow that to happen if we wish to see London and the UK prosper in the future.
The Government has made an overriding resolution to 'drive growth and create jobs right across our country'. A new hub airport has a key role to play in realising this.
Government must take the lead in enabling delivery of a new hub airport and safeguarding the UK's economic prosperity for many years to come.
Since 2010 I have published two reports, 'A New Airport for London' parts 1 and 2.
They make the case for the vital role played by aviation in the UK economy and the economic benefits that a new hub airport serving London could bring.
When the Airports Commission was established by the Government I asked Transport for London to lead an accelerated work programme to inform and complement the work of the Commission.
A detailed assessment has been made of potential sites for a new hub airport to the East of London, and this analysis underpinned the three submissions I made to the Commission in July 2013.
London and the UK need a new hub airport, and I am setting out some of the key pieces of evidence here.
As a result of work undertaken by us, the Mayor believes there are three strong options for a new hub airport serving London located to the east of the Capital.
In July 2013, the Mayor submitted detailed technical proposals for each of these three sites to the Airports Commission.
In support of the Mayor's three submissions to the Airports Commission for a new airport, a number of technical reports have been published that provide a greater level of detail about his proposals. These are listed below:
Impacts of a new hub airport upon the local and national economy - Oxford Economics
Impacts of the closure and redevelopment of Heathrow airport - Oxford Economics
Impacts of a new hub airport on the air freight industry - Oxford Economics
Impact on the UK economy through the provision of international connectivity
Land and housing technical note - Atkins
Stansted - planned residential development - A
Stansted - planned residential development - B
Inner Estuary Isle of Grain - planned residential development - C
Outer Estuary - planned residential development - D
Outer Estuary - planned residential development - E
Inner Estuary Isle of Grain - planning residential development - A
Inner Estuary Isle of Grain - planned residential development - B
Impact of a new hub aiport on business location and foreign direct investment - Ramboll
Impact of a new hub airport on tourism and non-business travel - Ramboll
Economic value of connectivity
Our workshop notes, National Air Traffic Services
Stansted hub airport masterplan, Atkins
Outer Estuary hub airport masterplan, Atkins
Isle of Grain hub airport masterplan, Atkins
Surface access technical note
Summary note of key commercial considerations - Ernst and Young
Isle of Grain, air quality compliance risks, Atkins
Isle of Grain airport, noise analysis report, ERCD
Outer Estuary hub airport, air quality compliance risks - Atkins
Outer Estuary hub airport, noise analysis report, ERCD
Stansted hub airport, air quality compliance risks - Atkins
Stansted hub airport, noise analysis report - ERCD
Climate change technical note - Atkins
London's international economy depends on access to a comprehensive global network of flights.
This in turn relies on a fully-functioning hub airport.
Without an efficient hub, vital access to new markets will be limited.
The issue is urgent. We need to respond, or London and the UK risk being sidelined by countries that are investing in their airport networks for future economic prosperity.
The Mayor is working hard to ensure that the Airports Commission and the Government are able to make the right decisions based on robust, credible evidence.
People fly for a range of personal and business reasons.
They take holidays, visit friends and relatives, study or work abroad, attend conferences or client meetings and do company business in international offices.
Planes move freight as well as people, serving worldwide markets and their supply chains.
Although much cargo is price-sensitive, it is regularly carried on passenger services, particularly where time is critical.
In London, a higher proportion of the market travels for business purposes than elsewhere, a result of the international nature of its economy.
Key economic sectors like financial services, heavy industry and innovation and creativity rely on aviation to do business and stay competitive.
There are also higher volumes of trips to visit friends and relatives from London airports because of the higher proportion of London's population with overseas family and social ties.
London is dependent on aviation for most of its international connections (80% of trips to and from the UK are made by air) and many of its domestic ones.
There are two main reasons why this is particularly important for London:
A hub airport is one which airlines are able to draw on a critical mass of 'point-to-point' and 'transfer' traffic to support a greater range of routes and frequencies.
For a hub airport to work effectively, it needs to have a strong catchment area as well as being optimised to support passengers and cargo transferring between flights.
Spare capacity is important to minimise delays on the ground and in the air and ensure resilience in the face of severe disruption.
It also means flights can be organised in waves of arrivals and departures, offering passengers the widest possible range of flight connections.
A hub airport enables airlines to serve a greater range of routes and frequencies than its local traffic could on its own.
As the UK's only hub, Heathrow is a key connection point.
Heathrow accounts for 40% of UK scheduled air passenger traffic - yet 80% of direct long-haul traffic.
Without the transfer traffic Heathrow attracts, 80% of these long-haul routes would suffer a reduction in frequency or be lost altogether.
London attracts more international business passengers than most cities, but even so, many services cannot be sustained unless demand is consolidated.
With more passengers travelling via an efficient hub airport, it can serve more destinations more often, meeting the needs of business and leisure travellers alike, helping sustain trade and inward tourism and investment.
Currently operating at 98.5% of its maximum capacity, Heathrow is becoming increasingly focused on a smaller number of markets.
Meanwhile, larger European airports have the capacity to serve far more destinations than Heathrow.
|Airport||Runways||Current max flights per hour||Future max flights per hour||Current runway utilisation (%) ||Destinations served (June 2011) |
|Paris Charles de Gaulle||4||114|| 120 (2015)||73.5||257|
|Frankfurt International||4||83|| 126 (2015)||74.5||291|
Heathrow now serves fewer destinations than its European rivals.
Twenty years ago, Heathrow served more than 200 destinations, and Paris Charles de Gaulle fewer than 180.
The situation is now reversed. Today, the hub airports serving Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt all serve more than 250 destinations.
Heathrow lacks the capacity to expand to a greater number of destinations.
It can no longer compete for new and emerging markets without reducing existing frequencies or by eliminating one route to establish another.
This is encouraging a shift of hub operations away from congested Heathrow towards European rivals, who can operate more flights to more destinations.
Heathrow's dire state of affairs can be seen in the lower number of seats per week offered to mainland China compared to other European hubs.
Seats per week to mainland Chinese airports from European hub airports
|Heathrow||Amsterdam||Paris Charles de Gaulle||Frankfurt International|
Source: OAG flight schedules for the week commencing 20 June 2011.
According to the Department for Transport's figures published in 2011, projected demand for Heathrow is forecast to more than double to 2050 - an increase of more than 100 million passengers per year.
Capacity constraints at Heathrow already mean that we are losing out on trade worth £1bn per year with fast growing emerging markets alone.
With London's economy so closely tied to its aviation connections, significant losses in international connectivity relative to London's competitors can be expected to have a profoundly negative economic effect.
The Committee for Climate Change (CCC) has recommended that passenger demand growth should be limited to a 60% increase on 2005 levels to 2050.
UK-wide, this would allow for growth of around 150 million passengers per year on current levels.
With its runways operating at 98.5% capacity, Heathrow it is unable to recover quickly to its normal operating schedule in the wake of delays and disruption.
Runway usage at other European hubs is much lower, at less than 75% at Amsterdam, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Frankfurt International.
Even with a third runway - there would be little scope for future growth, and this would worsen its impacts.
Of all the people in Europe currently affected by aircraft noise, almost one-third are affected by Heathrow, which also has severe air quality issues.
A third runway at Heathrow would not even be a viable stopgap.
It is likely that it could only be delivered two to three years in advance of a brand new airport.
No city in the world operates a successful network of hub capacity that links separate airports.
To attract passengers, airlines need to be able to transport them - and their baggage - quickly from one airport to another.
This would present considerable engineering and security challenges and would still be less attractive than changing planes in a single location, as rival airports would offer.
It would cause delays for international transfer passengers and make flying via the UK unattractive.
Rail will never be a replacement for air travel.
High Speed Rail could complement a hub airport by expanding its catchment area and by providing more connections and delivering more capacity to the hub.
Currently, a maximum of 10% of Heathrow's air services could feasibly be provided by a rail alternative.
Growth at regional airports can and should take place but this will not replace the need for a fully functioning London hub.
It is unlikely that regional airports will ever be able to support routes to more than a small number of long-haul destinations.
Mayor of London's response to the Airport Commissions Appraisal Framework Consultation
Response to study scope for Isle of Grain
Proposals for making best use of existing capacity in the short and medium term
Discussion Paper 01 - Aviation demand
Discussion Paper 02 - Aviation connectivity and the economy
Discussion Paper 03 - Aviation and Climate Change
Discussion Paper 04 - Airport Operational Models - response with evidence base
Discussion Paper 04 - Airport Operational Models
Discussion Paper 05 - Noise: the Mayor of London's response
Long and short to medium term proposals
The Airports Commission Interim Report: Key Issues
Daniel Moylan speech to Runways UK Conference - 16 January 2014
A new hub airport for London and the UK booklet
Why the UK needs a new hub airport factsheet
London airports route networks in 2050 - York Aviation
Night flying restrictions at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted - stage 1 consultation
2013 consultation results
New airport capacity options - assessment criteria
The Mayor's response to the Government's draft aviation policy framework
Developing a sustainable framework for UK aviation - full response
Developing a sustainable framework for UK aviation - summary response
A new airport for London part 1 - the case for new capacity
A new airport for London part 2 - the economic benefits of a new hub airport
The Airports Commission published an interim report in December 2013 setting out which locations will be taken forward for further development. Their final recommendation to the Government will be made in the summer of 2015.
The Mayor is calling on the Commission’s work to inform a National Policy Statement.
The necessary powers to build a new hub airport – most likely delivered through a Hybrid Bill – could be in place by 2020, at which point construction could begin.
A new hub could be open by 2029.